No. 6/2019: Modelling and forecasting wind drought

Abstract

The paper examines several simple dynamic probit models in terms of their usefulness in forecasting wind drought, defined as 5 or more hours of wind speed less than 3.5 m/sec during the busiest periods of the day for the demand for electricity. Dynamic probit models work well in terms of their ability to forecast and are robust by comparison with an approach based on modelling counts. There seems little advantage to moving to modelling counts unless there is added advantage to market participants in knowing the actual prediction for the number of hours of low wind. Future research should focus on the problem of identifying the first day in a series of days with slow winds, and the first day of reasonable wind after a spell of drought. Both the probit and count models could be improved in this regard.